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Alabama vs USF Odds

Saturday September 16

3:30 pm Eastern Time


Alabama Odd
Spread Total money line




-110o / -110u


Spread Total money line




-110o / -110u


After a disheartening loss in front of their home fans, the Alabama Crimson Tide heads to Tampa to take on the USF Bulls.

We all saw what happened in Tuscaloosa. The Crimson Tide was heavily outplayed by Texas and lost 34-24. Adjustments clearly need to be made, but Alabama has a lot of new players and first-time starters.

USF is coming off a solid 38-24 home win against Florida A&M. Under new head coach Alex Golesh, there is hope that this program will turn things around after a horrendous 1-11 record last season.

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For the first time in his tenure in Tuscaloosa, coach Nick Saban faces some uncertainty about the strength of his program.

I don’t think Jalen Milroe was the problem last week, but Saban was. decided to start Notre Dame transfer Tyler Buchner, who has plenty of experience working with offensive coordinator Tommy Rees.

Still, there are a lot of things this team needs to address.

Let’s start with the offensive line…wow. Texas’ defensive line stomped Alabama and sacked Milroe five times.

There are also issues with new offensive coordinator Tommy Rees. Alabama ranks 51st in success rate and 65th in passing rate.

Jase McClellan has been useful in his career, but as a first-time starter, he has been rather plain, rushing for just 3.8 yards per carry. Milroe is actually Alabama’s leading rusher with 92 yards on 22 attempts.

Over the past few years, Alabama has had top-tier vertical threats such as DeVonta Smith, Jaylen Waddle and Jameson Williams. Well, now there is a lack of legitimate playmakers. Jermaine Burton, Amari Niblack, Kobe Prentice and Isaiah Bond have all been decent, but none have exploded.

We can all talk about quarterback and offensive line play, but we also need to look at the defense. Saturday was the worst pressure generated by the Tide defense since 2016 (10%). Two weeks ago they generated the fourth lowest pressure (21%).

Neither Dallas Turner nor Chris Braswell have made a significant impact and it’s starting to make Alabama fans bite their nails. The pass rush lacks explosiveness and ranks 83rd in success rate. Run defense ranks 80th.

Additionally, the defense ranks 93rd on Havoc, which is not something we often see from Alabama.

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The Bulls definitely have a big task ahead of them. They were horrible last season, but they have a new coach looking to turn things around.

So far, despite last week’s victory, things are not looking very good.

South Florida ranks 122nd in offensive success rate and focuses primarily on the run. The vertical game hasn’t had much success and Byrum Brown has yet to top 200 passing yards in a game.

However, Brown is lethal on the run, which is why USF’s rush attack has been so successful.

In the first game of the season, Brown rushed for 160 yards and two touchdowns.

Unfortunately, it’s not as dynamic in the air. He is capable of making high-level plays, like when he threw an 84-yard touchdown to Khafre Brown, but those are few and far between. There aren’t many vertical threats on this roster, and he feels like Byrum Brown has to carry the team on his back.

I’ll give them credit on the defensive end; the Bulls rank 26th in success rate and 42nd in Havoc.

Logan Berryhill and Jaelen Stokes are solid defensive backs who have created some problems for the opposition so far.

It will be interesting to see how Buchner fares against them.

Alabama vs. USF

Analysis of confrontations

Toggle the dropdown menus below to hide or show how Alabama and USF match up statistically:

Alabama offense vs. USF defense
Hasty success 52 58
Yards of line 3. 4 49
Past events 60 105
Havoc 93 31
Finishing units 18 118
Quality units 69 89
USF Offense vs. Alabama Defense
Hasty success 74 78
Yards of line twenty-one 3. 4
Past events 131 82
Havoc 90 96
Finishing units 102 76
Quality units 117 67
Pace of play/Other
Approach to PFF 14 87
FFP coverage 26 102
SP+ Special Equipment 12 19
Medium 8 2 107
Seconds per play 26.9 (66) 20.1 (2)
Rush rate 59.5% (45) 59.7% (51)

Alabama vs. USF

Bet selection and prediction

Regardless of what we saw last week, Alabama is clearly the superior program.

FanDuel has this game listed at 31.5, which I can see Tide covering pretty easily. In years past, after Alabama lost, the next opponent would feel his wrath. It will be interesting to see if Alabama comes out with the same intensity.

USF may not be worse than it was, but it is still in the early stages of rebuilding. With the lack of a consistent vertical threat, I don’t foresee Alabama’s secondary being challenged much.

The Tide’s pass rush has a chance to put itself back on the map, and based on past history, I think we’ll see just that.

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