Atlanta United vs Inter Miami odds, picks and predictions | MLS Preview

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Atlanta United vs Inter Miami Odds

Questions about Lionel Messi’s availability surround Inter Miami as they watch Saturday’s game at Atlanta United.

Messi scored the winning goal with a free kick in Argentina’s first match of 2026 World Cup qualifying against Ecuador, but he also left the match early and was not included in the team’s 3-0 win against Bolivia on Tuesday. .

Miami continued to win without their Argentine superstar last weekend, beating Sporting Kansas City 3-2 at home. However, a trip to Atlanta could present a much tougher test in front of what could be a crowd of more than 70,000 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.

If Messi plays, this will be the second MLS team he faces for the second time. The Herons won 4-0 at home in their 2023 League Cup group stage match.

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At their best, Atlanta United seems capable of beating any team in the league. At worst, they are one of the most frustrating teams in MLS.

However, the overall product has been a bit more consistent since the summer additions of Xande Silva and Saba Lobzhanidze.

The duo have combined to score three goals in seven appearances to complement the production of striker Giorgos Giakoumakis and playmaker Thiago Almada. These additions create a much more balanced attacking group than the one that failed in Atlanta’s Leagues Cup loss to Miami.


On Friday, coach Tata Martino said Messi did not have a major injury, but also said it was unclear if Messi would play in Atlanta following his extensive international travel.

Part of the concern is the circumstances. Not only will the game be played on artificial turf, but it will also be the first of seven in a 22-day span for Miami.

Messi’s massive presence may obscure how much more Miami did to transform its roster during the summer window. And Saturday’s slim win was a great opportunity to see what else the Herons changed.

Two other additions, Sergio Busquets and Facundo Farías, combined for what became the winning goal.

Leonardo Campana scored Miami’s first two goals, one of which came from the penalty spot. Although he only started once, he has found the net five times in his last five appearances.


Atlanta United-Inter Miami

Selection and prediction

By now, you’re familiar with the idea that Miami has far exceeded their xG totals under Messi.

I have said for a while that such performances are not sustainable, although I am starting to reconsider, at least when the opposing team faces Messi for the first time.

The way other teams fail to take advantage of opportunities against Messi and company has been so constant that it almost has to be attributed to something apart from the variation. My working theory is that every team that plays Messi for the first time responds negatively to the increased level of media attention.

I also think those teams will be less likely to weaken in additional games against Messi, when the scrutiny is more familiar.

So, back in Atlanta? Not quite.

The price of +300 in the draw is too lucrative. Miami has tied 90 minutes in half of its away games.

The high price of the total of over 3.5 goals also opens up the opportunity to place a bet on four or fewer goals being scored. My favorite bet is the 3-4 multi-goal play at odds of +135 and implied probability of 42.6%. That has been claimed in nine of Atlanta’s 14 MLS home games and three of Miami’s six road games since Messi arrived.

Choose: ML Draw (+300, PointsBet), Multi-goal – 3 or 4 total goals (+135, DraftKings)

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