Best college football bets for Week 4: Pick a team on Alabama-Ole Miss and dive into the totals

Week 3 may have been a bit disappointing as far as featured matchups go, but it was a huge success for my college football betting model. After a bad Week 2, we largely bounced back as we had a chance to sweep the card before Arizona State suffered an unreported quarterback injury that ultimately doomed us. Either way, I’m comfortable with how the model projects teams at this point in the season.

Some of you have asked me about the totals after noticing that I haven’t played any so far this season. Well, that changes this week. With the new clock rules, I wanted to get a better idea of ​​how the totals would be affected before entering the market. It’s been three weeks and I’m feeling a little more comfortable projecting pace and pass/run splits, so I’m going to shoot some this week. I’ll still want more data points, definitely more conference games, before releasing a full card of totals, but we’re diving in.

Last week’s record: 5-1, +3.95 units

Season record: 10-10, -0.47 units, -2.2% return on investment

Best College Football Bets of Week 4

Be sure to compare prices at several bookmakers to get the best possible number. Throughout the season, they will add half a point here or five cents there.

The worst line to bet on is the final number you would bet on. For example, if I bet below 49.5 and the “worst line to bet” is 49 -110, I would not place that bet at 48.5 -110 or 49 -115.

All bets are to win one unit on the favorites and risk one unit on the underdogs, unless otherwise stated. All odds are from BetMGM and are locked when the pick is made. Click here to see live odds.

Coastal Carolina -6.5 (-110) vs. Georgia State

Fun Belt Action Thursday Night! Georgia State is off to an impressive start to the year, but this is a step up compared to the rest of its schedule. Grayson McCall continues to be a fantastic college quarterback and is a difference maker in this game for Coastal Carolina. My number is closer to 10 here, so anything other than a touchdown has a lot of value.

Worst line to bet on: Coastal Carolina -7 (-110)

Pitt +7.5 (-110) vs. North Carolina

This is a special to hold your nose. Pitt looked like absolute garbage against West Virginia last week, and yet here I am pitting them against the second most talented quarterback in all of college football. I just can’t come up with this number. I think this should be closer to a field goal and the fact that we got a touchdown off the hook is too good to pass up. I’m sure I won’t regret it on Saturday.

Worst line to bet on: Pitt +7 (-110)

BYU in Kansas 56+ (-110)

Kansas has one of the most efficient offenses in the country, so I’m not discouraged by their poor performance against Nevada last week. Honestly, it wasn’t even that bad of a performance and they should have scored more considering they had 99th and 95th percentile efforts between offensive success rate and EPA/Play. I’m sure Kansas will put up points that should make BYU play with some urgency.

Worst line to bet on: Over 57.5 (-110)

Alabama -7 (-110) vs. Ole Miss (to win 1.5 units)

Jalen Milroe is back in the starting lineup this week and it’s enough for me to jump on the Crimson Tide. Milroe has his flaws, but he’s probably the best athlete on the field when he’s under center. This isn’t the Alabama we’re used to seeing, but with Milroe as the starter, they’re still pretty good.

Worst line to bet on: Alabama -9.5 (-110)

Cincinnati +14 (-110) vs. Oklahoma

Cincinnati just lost at home to Miami Ohio in overtime, but outscored Miami by almost 200 yards. Oklahoma has looked super impressive this year and has moved up in my projections because of that, but the schedule has been a little weak. Cincinnati should be the best defense the Sooners have faced so far this season and I’m willing to bet they can slow the Sooners down enough to stay within the number.

Worst line to bet on: Cincinnati +14 (-110)

Oregon State -2.5 (-110) at Washington State

I’m aboard the Beaver train. Oregon State has dismantled everyone they have played this year and I think the Beavers are very well coached under Jonathan Smith. Washington State beat Wisconsin, but the Badgers struggled to eliminate Georgia Southern with a plus-six turnover margin. I think the Beavers are the right side here.

Worst Betting Line: Oregon State -3 (-110)

UCF +6.5 (-110) at Kansas State

I’d love to have a full touchdown here, but I think we’re more likely to see UCF money in the future than not, so I’m all in now. John Rhys Plumlee is likely out of UCF, but backup quarterback Timmy McClain is doing very well in Gus Malzahn’s offense. My model tends to think Kansas State is a little overrated (they came very close against them last week) and I think UCF is a little underrated heading into their Big 12 debut.

Worst line to bet on: UCF +6 (-110)

USF Moneyline (+120) vs. Rice (risk 0.5 units)

The spread could reach a field goal, so I’ll cut my moneyline risk in half. I think the wrong team is being favored here. Sure, Alabama’s quarterback situation was a disaster last week, but USF held its own, which is impressive considering the talent deficit. And if you remember, USF beat Western Kentucky only to have a three-turnover deficit. My model believes the betting market is underestimating the Bulls right now.

Worst line to bet on: USF ML (+110)

Cal +21.5 (-110) in Washington

Another nose-holding special, but my model loves Washington and I can’t get to this number yet. I think the spread is a little inflated because Washington beat a Michigan State team that had external problems, so I’m skeptical the data is predictive going forward. Sure, Cal looked brutal last week against Idaho, but hopefully that was because they were looking at Washington this week.

Worst line to bet on: Cal +21 (-110)

Ohio at Bowling Green above 46.5 (-110)

This number could go down a bit, but 45.5 to 46.5 is a bit dead, so I’m not too worried. Either way, I think this is an overreaction to how slow Bowling Green played against Michigan last week (I think they just wanted the game to end) and Ohio facing a good Iowa State defense. My model thinks this game hits 50 most of the time, making it an easy game around here.

Worst line to bet on: Over 46.5 (-110)

Middle Tennessee -2.5 (-110) vs. Colorado State

I’m not a big guy when it comes to “situational spots,” but if there was ever a time for disappointment, it’s Colorado State after an overtime loss to Colorado. Honestly, that could have been his Super Bowl. Luckily for me, my model has Middle Tennessee by 3.5 in this game, so I don’t need to factor in the situation to have value here. On the other hand, Middle Tennessee got smoked by Alabama, but played hard against a solid Missouri team and should be, at the very least, favored by three in this game.

Worst Betting Line: Middle Tennessee -3 (-110)

Western Kentucky +3.5 (-110) at Troy

I’m not going to get too discouraged about Ohio State annihilating Western Kentucky last week, but I’m worried about Troy getting absolutely dominated by James Madison’s defense. Troy ran 13 times for just 32 yards. Western Kentucky isn’t that strong on defense, but that’s concerning when you combine it with the six sacks allowed in that game. I think Western Kentucky’s offense scores enough here to get us to the window.

Worst Betting Line: Western Kentucky +3 (-110)

James Madison -5.5 (-110) at Utah State

James Madison’s offense gives me a little pause while scoring points, but I’m a big fan of the defense. The Dukes just dominated Troy’s offense last week and Utah State should be an easier matchup. Maybe the Dukes can’t score enough to cover that many points, but my numbers are north of a touchdown, so it’s an easy pick for me.

Worst line to bet on: James Madison -6.5 (-110)

(Jalen Milroe Photo: Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)