Best MLB bets today | Odds and picks for Red Sox vs. Blue Jays, Cubs vs. Diamondbacks (Saturday, September 16)

The MLB season is coming to an end, so we have to take advantage of the few complete rosters left. Every team is in action today as there are 16 games (and even more betting opportunities) on the schedule for Saturday, September 16.

Our MLB betting experts have analyzed the odds in an attempt to identify the best MLB bets today.

After analyzing those MLB odds, our experts found betting value in a couple of moneyline picks and are betting on Red Sox vs. Blue Jays and Cubs vs. Diamondbacks. Today’s best MLB bets are below, so be sure to continue reading.

Today’s best MLB bets

The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups our MLB betting staff is targeting in today’s slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.

By DJ James

Chris Sale doesn’t look like the perennial Cy Young contender he used to be. He has had a troubled year and will be tasked with facing the Toronto Blue Jays on Saturday.

Meanwhile, Toronto will hand the ball to Chris Bassitt, who has been exceptional in the second half and will look to silence an already flagging Boston lineup.

Neither bullpen has been good, but the Blue Jays can count on Bassitt to throw deeper in this game than Sale. As a result, backing the Blue Jays on the money line is the smart bet.

Sale has a 4.88 ERA against a 3.75 xERA. He limits opponents to an average exit velocity of 87.7 mph and a hard hit rate of 33.2%. That said, both his ground ball rate (38.9%) and his barrel rate (8.7%) are below average. The expected statistics may favor the veteran left-hander, but his second-half numbers tell a different story. Sale has a 5.53 ERA in 27 2/3 innings since the All-Star break and hasn’t pitched more than five innings since early August.

The Red Sox offense has also been disappointing lately. Boston boasts a 92 wRC+, a 7% walk rate, a 27% strikeout rate, and a .729 OPS against righties in September. The bottom of this lineup is weak and Bassitt should thrive.

Bassitt has been as solid as ever. Yes, his xERA (4.29) is higher than his 3.89 ERA, but both numbers are fine. His barrel rate is 8.9%, but his average exit velocity is 87.6 mph and his hard hit rate is 35.7%. Plus, his second half numbers are phenomenal. In 69 innings, he has a 3.26 ERA since the All-Star break.

The Blue Jays can also hit better than Boston. Toronto has a 120 wRC+, a 12.4% walk rate, a 15.2% strikeout rate, and a .778 OPS from lefties this month.

By DJ James

The Chicago Cubs aren’t hitting right-handed pitchers well and their top trade deadline acquisition, Jeimer Candelario, is on the injured list. However, Zach Davies will start for the Arizona Diamondbacks and will face Chicago’s Kyle Hendricks.

Davies is horrible. As of September, he owns a 6.23 ERA in 13 innings and has only logged more than five innings in one of three starts this month. On the season, his career pitching value ranks in the fifth percentile and his ERA is 6.81 (5.42 xERA). His average exit velocity is nearly 90 mph and his hard hit rate is 42.9%. He also has a 10.6% walk rate and a putrid 18.8% strikeout rate.

In contrast, Hendricks’ career pitching value is in the 69th percentile. His average exit velocity is 85.1 mph and his hard-hit rate is 31%. His strikeout rate is 16.4%, but his walk rate is only 4.2%. His ERA is 3.71 against an xERA of 4.08.

In relief, Chicago and Arizona have fared similarly, so there isn’t much of an advantage either way.

However, this month, the Cubs have a 105 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, which is much better than Arizona’s 82 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. Although the Cubs have regressed a bit, they have still been better than the D’backs.

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