Best MLB bets today | Odds, picks for Nationals vs Pirates, Diamondbacks vs Mets (Thursday, September 14)

The only thing better than midweek games is the opportunity to bet on midweek games and that’s exactly what we’ll have on Thursday, September 14.

There are nine games on today’s MLB slate and our betting experts have found value in two of them, including the first game of the day: Nationals vs. Pirates.

There is also a better bet for Diamondbacks vs. Mets, so read on as today’s best MLB bets are below.

Today’s best MLB bets

The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups our MLB betting staff is targeting in today’s slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.

By DJ James

This month, the Washington Nationals have shown spark at the plate and should be able to score some runs early. The Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen has been the better of the two this season, but the Nationals should be able to score with Mitch Keller. As a result, picking the Nationals to overhaul your team total is the best bet for this matchup.

The Nationals have been hitting well lately, especially against righties. Washington has a 113 wRC+, .792 OPS, 9.1% walk rate, and 17.4% strikeout rate in September among righties. In that time, the Nationals have six hitters with an xwOBA over .320. In other words, the top of the lineup should feast on the feisty Keller.

Keller has a 4.22 ERA against a 4.09 xERA. He has a barrel rate of 8.5%, an average exit velocity of 87.3 mph and a hard hit rate of 34.3%. In the second half, his numbers have plummeted. Since the All-Star break, he has a 6.09 ERA in 57 2/3 innings and has allowed six or more earned runs in four starts.

In relief, the Pirates have an xFIP of 4.07. If Keller doesn’t dig deep in this game, Pittsburgh’s bullpen will have some issues in the middle innings, allowing the Nationals to add a couple more runs.

The Nationals have a decent lineup, particularly at the top of the order. Additionally, Keller hasn’t been himself in the second half and the Pirates have some holes in the middle relief. That being the case, the end of Washington is at stake. He plays against the Nationals with a total of 4.5 (-125).

Choose: Nationals more than 3.5 runs (-115)

By DJ James

Kodai Senga was the New York Mets’ best signing of the offseason. He has a spectacular 3.07 ERA against a 3.78 xERA. His barrel rate is just 6.2%, his average exit velocity is 88.6 mph, and his hard hit rate is 39.6%. Additionally, he has a career pitching value in the 98th percentile. His walk rate is 11.2%, but his strikeout rate is 28.9%.

Today he faces Merrill Kelly and the Arizona Diamondbacks. Kelly has a 3.16 ERA against a 4.09 xERA with a 7.5% barrel rate. His average exit velocity is 89.2 mph and his hard hit rate is 40.2%. He strikes out 26.2% of batters and walks 9.1% with a career pitching value in the 91st percentile. Overall, he is very reliable, but Senga has a slight advantage.

The D’backs have had issues with rights in September. They have a wRC+ of 92 with a .702 OPS, a 9.4% walk rate, and a 23.4% strikeout rate.

Meanwhile, New York has a 114 wRC+, .784 OPS, 6.4% walk rate, and 23.9% strikeout rate among righties this month.

Now, New York’s problem may be the bullpen as Mets relievers have a 5.17 xFIP this month. That being said, the Mets still have four arms with an xFIP under 4.00.

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