Braves vs Marlins prediction today | MLB Odds and Picks for Friday, September 15

Braves vs Marlins odds

Friday, September 15

6:40 pm Eastern Time

MLB.TV

Braves Odd
money line	Total	running line
-188	9 -106 / -114	-1.5 -122

billfish Odd
money line	Total	running line
+158	9 -106 / -114	+1.5 +102

The NL East champions face an NL playoff contender in this crucial series as the Atlanta Braves take on the Miami Marlins.

Atlanta’s official proclamation as division champions was merely a formality, as they had been sweeping the division since April. Their double-digit lead over two playoff teams is impressive and they have clearly established themselves as the best team in baseball.

As for the Marlins, they have surprised many this season and are in the midst of a tight race for the final NL wild card spot heading into this matchup. The Fish are only half a game away, and from here on out, every game is essentially a playoff game.

So what is the best way to bet on the first match of this series? Let’s dig deeper to find out.

A team at the top of the league has many strengths, but there is no doubt that what makes the Atlanta Braves special is their incredible lineup. It all starts at the top with likely National League MVP Ronald Acuña, who has proven to be the definition of a five-tool player.

Then you turn to Matt Olson, who has more than filled Freddie Freeman’s shoes this season. He’s already tied the Braves’ club record for home runs in a single season and will take it even higher heading into October.

Those two and everyone else who makes up baseball’s most formidable lineup will be led by Johnny Cueto. Cueto has had a rough patch in his age-37 season, as he will enter this start with a 6.15 ERA.

Surprisingly, he hasn’t allowed much hard contact, but he doesn’t miss many barrels at this point in his career, which is a bad sign for how he’ll fare against this Braves lineup.

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We went from a lineup that takes the cover off the ball to one that has been doing much of the opposite. The Marlins don’t have a lineup with much thunder, and it doesn’t help that they play in a pitcher-friendly park to begin with.

Miami will have to deal with Bryce Elder, who has provided the Braves with great stability at the end of their rotation. Elder’s contact metrics suggest he’s in for considerable regression, but we’ve learned that sinkerballers are a rare breed who can consistently exceed expectations because even the hardest balls are likely to end up on the ground.

However, for this matchup, I’m looking at Elder’s strikeout potential, as he’s being underrated against a Marlins lineup with a lot more swing and error than his team’s strikeout rate represents.

The Marlins may be 21st in team strikeout rate, but they have seven hitters on their roster with above-average strikeout rates.

With little value in the side or total in this matchup, I expect Bryce Elder to give us the best advantage. As mentioned above, the Marlins have more holes in their lineup than would appear on the surface, and Elder’s strikeout total is too low.

Elder has appeared in 38 games in his young career and has surpassed this strikeout total in 65.8 percent of them. Those are -192 implied odds on him recording four strikeouts tonight.

It also helps that our Action Labs projections are in favor of this ending too. They have him scheduled for 4.5 strikeouts.

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