Dolphins vs Patriots Odds, Pick and Prediction: NFL Sunday Night Football Preview

Dolphins vs. Odds Patriots

The second Sunday Night Football game of the 2023 NFL season gives us an AFC East rivalry game, so let’s dive into the odds between the Dolphins and Patriots.

With the Bills losing to the Jets in Week 1, and New York losing quarterback Aaron Rodgers for the season, Patriots vs. Dolphins have suddenly taken on greater importance both in the AFC East and in the playoff race. Last season, New England and Miami split the season series, with each team winning at home.

Let’s break down this game and make a Dolphins vs. Patriots for Week 2 of Sunday Night Football.

The Dolphins impressed in Week 1 when they put up 36 points and 14 explosive passing plays of 16+ yards in a 36-34 win over the Chargers.

Miami’s offense should be one of the best in the league as long as Tua Tagovailoa is upright, but I still expect him to come back down to earth in Week 2. For one, Miami won’t be facing a Chargers defense that has allowed 60 points in his last six quarters, dating back to the playoff loss against the Jaguars.

Second, the Patriots defense was impressive in Week 1, holding the Eagles to just 251 yards on 61 plays (4.1 yards per play). Most importantly, the Patriots allowed just one explosive pass play of 16 yards or more.

Bill Belichick’s defense found success against the Dolphins in Tagovailoa’s only start against them under Mike McDaniel. In that matchup, Week 1 of last season, New England held Miami to 307 yards and 20 points.

The Patriots’ offense is cause for concern.

Four offensive linemen — Trent Brown (concussion), Mike Onwenu (ankle), Cole Strange (knee) and Sidy Sow (concussion) — are listed as questionable, and Brown and Sow were unable to practice all week.

DeVante Parker (knee) is injured and offseason acquisition Juju Smith-Schuster was benched in the fourth quarter last week. Mac Jones threw for 316 yards, but averaged just 5.9 yards per attempt, while the Dolphins limited Justin Herbert to 229 yards and 6.9 yards per attempt.

The Dolphins were cut on the ground for 233 yards last week, so the Patriots will likely attack there under new offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien.

The Patriots, however, struggled to run the ball with their banged-up offensive line and gained just 76 yards on 22 carries (3.5 yards per carry). The Dolphins should also be better against the run, as new defensive coordinator Vic Fangio won’t have to worry about an explosive passing game.

Divisional games tend to be lower-scoring, and this is a matchup between two of the best defensive minds in the game: Belichick and Fangio.

According to our Action Labs data, Week 2 divisional totals that opened 43 or more are down 44-22 (67%) since 2005, covering 3.3 points per game.

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