Louisville vs. Indiana Odds and Predictions: Can the Hoosiers Stay Close?

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Louisville vs Indiana odds

Saturday September 16

Noon ET

BTN

louisville Odd
Spread Total money line

-10

-110

50.5

-110o / -110u

-375

Indiana Odd
Spread Total money line

+10

-110

50.5

-110o / -110u

+290

Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis will host this interconference matchup between Louisville and Indiana on Saturday.

Jeff Brohm and the Louisville Cardinals will look to keep their undefeated season alive after a thrilling win against Georgia Tech in Week 1 and the dismantling of FCS Murray State a week ago.

On the other hand, Indiana was able to bounce back from its week one loss to Ohio State by defeating local foe Indiana State, 41-7.

To determine who will earn a critical non-conference win and keep their momentum going, let’s take a look at the odds and make a prediction for Louisville vs. Indiana.


Take a look at our NCAAF Betting Center for more college football previews, predictions, news and analysis.

Through two weeks, Louisville has impressed, particularly on the offensive side of the ball. The Cardinals rank ninth nationally in overall success rate as a result of their ability to create explosive plays.

Louisville has the highest broadcast explosiveness in the country and ranks 25th nationally in running game explosiveness through two weeks.

These explosive plays have been critical for a Louisville team that needs to make up for defensive inconsistencies and offensive mistakes.

For example, Louisville managed a victory against Georgia Tech despite allowing the Yellow Jackets to rack up 488 yards of total offense. Georgia Tech found most of its success through the air, averaging 9.8 yards per attempt.

This aerial success should come as no surprise, as Louisville’s secondary was a question mark entering this season. The Cardinals lost three of their top four tacklers and added a significant number of gate additions in the secondary.

These defensive inconsistencies will be a welcome sight for newly established starting QB Tayven Jackson and an Indiana offense looking to build on his Week 2 performance.

On the other side of the ball, Louisville has put up impressive numbers, but it hasn’t been perfect offensively.

In particular, quarterback Jack Plummer has been a mixed bag, throwing four touchdowns and three interceptions. Plummer’s performance will have to be better against an Indiana secondary that has been a strength through the first two weeks.

Overall, the Hoosiers’ secondary has been excellent at limiting their opponent’s explosive play ability, ranking seventh nationally in defensive explosiveness.

For a Louisville offense that has benefited greatly from creating big plays, this Indiana secondary will force the Cardinals to limit mistakes and generate consistent offensive success in order to cover this number.

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The test for Indiana will be developing its identity on the offensive side of the ball.

Through two games, the Hoosiers rank 88th nationally in success rate, but were able to put up some positive numbers against FCS Indiana State. The Hoosiers scored 4.25 points per opportunity against the Sycamores while producing four straight yards per rush.

Additionally, Indiana will look to build continuity at the QB position, as Jackson was named the starter moving forward after completing 85.7% of his pass attempts in Week 2.

I like this opportunity for Indiana’s offense against a Louisville defense that ranks 99th nationally in run game success rate allowed.

This ability to generate success on the ground behind an experienced offensive line will allow Jackson to establish himself and create explosives in the game against a Louisville defense that ranks 100th nationally in explosiveness allowed in the passing game.


Louisville vs. Indiana

Analysis of confrontations

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Louisville and Indiana match up statistically:

Louisville offense vs. Indiana defense
Hasty success 2 78
Yards of line 17 103
Past events 35 43
Havoc 22 27
Finishing units 6 41
Quality units 33 52
Indiana offense vs. Louisville defense
Hasty success 104 99
Yards of line 46 55
Past events 51 6
Havoc 33 119
Finishing units 97 2
Quality units 48 twenty-one
Pace of play/Other
Approach to PFF sixteen 60
FFP coverage 75 78
SP+ Special Equipment fifteen 33
Medium 8 107 107
Seconds per play 25.6 (48) 29.3 (101)
Rush rate 54.6% (48) 56.4% (53)

Louisville vs. Indiana

Bet selection and prediction

This is a perfect situation to back an Indiana team grabbing points against a Louisville team that still has a lot of question marks on both sides of the ball.

Offensively, I expect Jackson to take advantage of his new starting role against a Louisville defense that allowed Georgia Tech to establish the run and create explosive plays through the air.

On the other hand, Indiana has enough playmakers in the secondary to make this Louisville offense, which ranks outside the top 100 in Passing Down PPA and Explosiveness, one-dimensional.

Give me the points with Indiana in this neutral site contest, as I expect it to be competitive throughout.

Pick: Indiana +10 (Play up to +8.5)

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