Mississippi State vs LSU Odds, Predictions & Picks | Saturday SEC Betting Guide

Mississippi State vs LSU odds

The 2023 season did not start as expected for LSU as it suffered a crushing loss at Camping World Stadium to Florida State. The Tigers carried the lead into the second half, only to see the Seminoles rally their way by as many as 21 points in the fourth quarter for a comfortable 45-24 victory.

LSU regrouped with a 72-10 rout of Grambling State in Week 2.

Mississippi State entered the season with the lowest expectations of any SEC West team because head coach Zach Arnett implemented a change in offensive philosophy. After spending years in Mike Leach’s Air Raid scheme, the Bulldogs now run the ball as much as any team on 63% of all plays.

Miss State dominated Southeast Louisiana in the opener before needing overtime to beat Arizona in Starkville in Week 2.

With two games under their new offensive system, the Bulldogs will look to ramp up the intensity against a Tigers team looking to start conference play on a high note.

Find a betting pick, preview and prediction for LSU vs Mississippi State below.

New Mississippi State offensive coordinator Kevin Barbay had previous stops at Appalachian State, Central Michigan and Stephen F. Austin. Each of those programs used a strong rushing attack, similar to what Mississippi State has shown in two games this season.

The Bulldogs averaged just 4.3 yards per play on rushing attempts against Arizona, recording just one explosive rush in the process. Jo’Quavious Marks has been the bell with 24 carries for 123 yards against the Wildcats.

Despite the scheme change, quarterback Will Rogers has been fantastic through two games.

Rogers has thrown five touchdowns and no interceptions this season, posting just one turnover-worthy play. Receiver Lideatrick “Tulu” Griffin has been the team’s most dangerous weapon with 11 targets and 4.1 yards per route.

Despite the scheme change, Mississippi State remains a low-risk offense similar to the Air Raid era, and continues to rank in the top 30 in Havoc Allowed. However, 16th in quality offensive drives and 48th in finishing drives indicate there are points left on the table for the Bulldogs’ offense.

Arnett is in his second season in the 3-3-5 scheme in Starkville, and the Bulldogs have been excellent at creating chaos while ranking ninth in Havoc, thanks to 14 passes defensed and 12 tackles for loss.

Linebacker Jett Johnson has been instrumental, leading the team in tackles and trailing only Nathaniel Watson in creating pressures.

Mississippi State ranks 14th in hard stop rate, an indicator of defensive dominance when causing a turnover, creating a 3-pointer or making a fourth-down stop..

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LSU’s offense and defense have followed different paths for eight quarters this season. The good is wrapped up in an offense that ranks in the top 20 in Havoc Allowed, Quality Drives, and explosive passing.

Jayden Daniels has yet to make a play that deserves a turnover and has generated six touchdown passes while avoiding 22 pressures.

Brian Thomas Jr. and Kyren Lacy have become dangerous targets behind Malik Nabers. Thomas averages an impressive 3.2 yards per route and has caught three touchdowns in just two games.

The offense has shown a lot of fluidity for coordinator Mike Denbrock, but the challenges come on defense.

Defensive tackle Maason Smith returned to action against Grambling, recording just one pressure and tackle in 35 snaps. Grambling hit the Tigers on the ground early, a product of the defense starting with the dime package, according to head coach Brian Kelly.

Grambling generated seven runs of at least 12 yards for an average of 5.9 yards per play. LSU’s defense caught up after the first few drives, but there are a lot of questions after being dominated by Florida State in the opener.

Toggle the dropdown menus below to hide or show how LSU and Mississippi State match up statistically:

LSU offense vs. Mississippi State defense

Hasty success	13	53
Yards of line	22	61
Past events	61	97
Havoc	10	9
Finishing units	26	120
Quality units	5	29

Mississippi State offense versus LSU defense

Hasty success	73	46
Yards of line	41	83
Past events	56	115
Havoc	30	87
Finishing units	48	110
Quality units	sixteen	95

Pace of play/Other

Approach to PFF	114	51
FFP coverage	107	14
SP+ Special Equipment	49	94
Medium 8	33	33
Seconds per play	23.8 (18)	28.4 (87)
Rush rate	51.4% (76)	62.9% (9)

Both defenses have major question marks entering this SEC matchup.

Arizona gained well above the national average in available yardage in Starkville, recording two methodical drives and two explosive drives. The Bulldogs allowed Arizona to average six yards per play on standard downs, creating short yardage on third and fourth downs.

Mississippi State ranks 120th in defensive kills, allowing 5.2 points to opponents crossing the 40-yard line. Considering the Bulldogs have produced one of the lowest pressure rates in the FBS, LSU’s offensive line will protect Daniels on every throw.

The Bulldogs’ offense will see similar success against an LSU defense that ranks 110th in defensive kills.

The Tigers have generated pressure from the defensive line, but LSU has allowed a lot of explosive plays. Coordinator Matt House must develop better fundamentals for the defense, which ranks 114th in tackles with a broken tackle rate that is near last in the FBS.

Action Network’s projection calls for LSU -8 in the spread with a total of 63. Considering the poor tackling and penchant for delivering explosives, a full-game bet is in play considering the first half.

Grambling carved up the LSU defense on scheduled scoring plays on the first two drives, so a new-look Mississippi State team should execute at the same level.

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