Nationals vs Pirates Prediction Today | MLB Odds and Picks for Thursday, September 14

Odds between Nationals and Pirates

Thursday September 14

12:35 pm Eastern Time

MLB.TV

National Odd
money line	Total	running line
+142	8.5 -110 / -110	+1.5 -144

Pirates Odd
money line	Total	running line
-168	8.5 -110 / -110	-1.5 +120

Josiah Gray and Mitch Keller have had similar seasons with the Nationals and Pirates. Both fell in the second half, although they will face each other on Thursday.

This month, the Washington Nationals have shown spark at the plate and should be able to score some runs early. The Pittsburgh Pirates’ bullpen has been the better of the two this season, but the Nationals should be able to score on Keller. As a result, taking the Nationals to go over their team total is the best bet for the Nationals against the Pirates on Thursday.

Gray has a 4.13 ERA against a 5.15 xERA. He has a 9% barrel rate, an 87.4 mph average exit velocity, and a 36.2% hard hit rate. Those aren’t jarring numbers, but he also owns a below-average 39% ground ball rate, a 12% walk rate, and a 19.5% strikeout rate. In the second half, he has a 5.88 ERA in 41 1/3 innings.

The Nationals have been hitting lately, especially against righties. Washington has a 113 wRC+, .792 OPS, 9.1% walk rate, and 17.4% strikeout rate in September among righties. In that time, the Nationals have six hitters with an xwOBA over .320. In other words, the top of the lineup should feast on the feisty Keller.

However, Washington’s bullpen is atrocious. In September, Nationals relievers have a 5.11 xFIP with a 15.7% strikeout rate and a 10.2% walk rate. And because Gray has a tendency to walk batters, it’s hard to back the Nationals in this game, even when they’re underdogs.

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Keller has a 4.22 ERA against a 4.09 xERA. He has a barrel rate of 8.5%, an average exit velocity of 87.3 mph and a hard hit rate of 34.3%. In the second half, his numbers have plummeted. Since the All-Star break, he has a 6.09 ERA in 57 2/3 innings and has allowed six or more earned runs in four starts.

The Pirates have been consistently below average at the plate. They have a 79 wRC+, a .685 OPS, a 7% walk rate, and a 21.1% strikeout rate this month against righties. They have four active hitters with an xwOBA over .330, but that’s not enough to bet on them, even if Gray has struggled lately.

In relief, the Pirates have an xFIP of 4.07. If Keller doesn’t dig deep in this game, Pittsburgh’s bullpen will have some issues in the middle innings, allowing the Nationals to add a couple more runs.

The Nationals have a decent lineup, particularly at the top of the order. Additionally, Keller hasn’t been himself in the second half and the Pirates have some holes in the middle relief. That being the case, the end of Washington is at stake. He plays against the Nationals with a total of 4.5 (-125).

Choose: Washington Nationals Over 3.5 (-115) runs | Play at 4.5 (-125)

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