Navy vs Memphis Odds, Picks & Predictions | College Football Betting Preview (Thursday, September 14)

Navy vs Memphis Odds

Thursday September 14

7:30 pm Eastern Time

ESPN

Navy Odd
Spread	Total	money line
+14.5 -105	47.5 -110o / -110u	+450

Memphis Odd
Spread	Total	money line
-14.5 -115	47.5 -110o / -110u	-650

For Thursday’s only FBS vs. FBS game, we look at the Navy Midshipmen (1-1) against the Memphis Tigers (2-0).

These teams haven’t shown much this season, but the rosters are largely the same as when these two faced off a season ago, which leaves us with some information to go off of.

Let’s take a look at the odds and make a betting pick for this AAC matchup between Navy and Memphis.

There’s not much that can be gleaned from Navy’s first two contests this season. In Week 0, Notre Dame defeated him in Ireland, and in Week 2, he dispatched FCS opponent Wagner with ease.

After these two games, it’s still too early to make a judgment on what this team is.

Brian Newberry takes over as the new head coach in Annapolis after spending the last four years as defensive coordinator.

Leading Navy’s offense will be Grant Chesnut, who has been the offensive coordinator at Kennesaw State for the past nine seasons. At Kennesaw, Chesnut used a variation of the option, which fits Navy’s traditional offensive scheme.

Offensively, the Midshipmen return eight starters, including their leading passer, four of their five leading rushers, their leading receiver and four offensive linemen.

In Week 1 against Notre Dame, Navy’s offense had a yards per play mark in the second percentile. However, his success rate was in the 48th percentile. The midfielders got the yards they needed at times, but couldn’t generate explosive plays.

Naturally, the offense improved against Wagner, posting a 58th percentile success rate and 56th percentile EPA per play. While that’s an improvement, Wagner’s defense finished 112th in the FCS by SP+ last year, per what should be expected more from the Middies.

I may be proven wrong, but I don’t see this being the week where Navy proves to be better than its 107th SP+ offensive ranking from last year.

Navy’s defense was one of the best units in the AAC last season, ranking 41st in SP+ defense and allowing just 24.3 points per game.

With nine starters back, including all of their defensive backs, Memphis may have a tough time moving the ball against this team.

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In the same way that it’s hard to take anything away from Navy’s first two games, Memphis has had an equally useless schedule. In Week 1 they beat Bethune-Cookman, 56-14, while they had the privilege of playing a downtrodden Arkansas State team in Week 2 and won, 37-3.

Quarterback Seth Henigan returns for his third season with the Tigers. Last year, he threw for 3,571 yards and 22 touchdowns, leading Memphis’ 29th-ranked offense.

With the schedule so easy, things have started well for him again. Memphis ranks 14th in the country in passing success rate so far, with Henigan averaging 0.33 EPA per play and completing 72% of his passes.

On the defensive side of the ball, the Tigers had some issues last year, ranking 80th in SP+. However, things are off to a good start for them in 2023 as they rank fifth in defensive success rate.

However, this is largely due to their opponent schedule.

Memphis brings back six starters from last year’s defense, including most of the secondary. We shouldn’t expect this defense to perform as well as it has going forward, but it may have improved marginally from last year.

At this point in the season, I don’t have any confidence in Navy’s offense. Wagner is a team that certainly should have had a better offensive performance against, but the Midshipmen failed to produce notable numbers.

Memphis ranked 23rd in rushing yards allowed last year and held Navy to a 13th percentile success rate in a 37-13 win.

I like the Tigers at -14.5 and would take them to -17 as I think they will win if they go here Thursday night.

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