Premier League Odds and Picks | Fulham vs Luton Town Prediction

Fulham vs Luton Town odds

Fulham and Luton Town will meet on Saturday as they look to bounce back from matchday four defeats.

The Cottagers have had a chaotic start to the season, beating Everton away, being destroyed by Brentford at home, earning a fortunate late draw with Arsenal and then being dismantled 5-1 by Man City before the international break.

Fulham saw their best striker, Aleksander Mitrovic, leave for the Saudi Pro League, but were able to retain their star midfielder Joao Palhinha, whose deal with Bayern Munich fell through on the transfer deadline.

Luton Town have had a difficult start in the top flight. The Hatters have lost all three of their matches by a combined score of 9-2, and it is quite clear that they lack the talent to compete in the Premier League. It’s a long season and they’ve faced some pretty good competition in three games, so playing a team at their level may give them a better chance.

As crazy as it sounds, I didn’t think Fulham were as bad as the final score against City suggested. They held the best team in the world to just six shots throughout the entire game and one of them was a penalty. However, this is the same Fulham team that has conceded 11.7 xG in four games.

This is a game where Fulham will have to be the ones to control possession and play with pressure, which is not something they are good at. Basically, the only thing Fulham have done positively so far this season is be efficient from set pieces, having scored against City and Arsenal that way. Through four games, they are second in the Premier League in xG per set piece. Luton Town are currently third with three games in xG allowed per set piece and are in the top eight for aerial double win percentage.

Fulham have found it difficult to defend in wide areas. They have done a good job closing down the midfield this season, but they have allowed 82 crosses and seven of them were completed in their penalty area.

They also don’t have a consistent goal threat up front after Mitrovic left. In four games, Raúl Jiménez leads them with seven shots, but only 0.4 xG proves it.

Luton Town have had to face three really tough opponents to start the season, having to travel to Brighton and Chelsea while also hosting West Ham, who are in incredible form. Now they face a team close to their level and the market has severely discounted them.

They weren’t too bad against West Ham at home in their last game despite losing 2-1. They won the xG battle by a whopping 1.9 to 1.2.

Luton Town’s high-pressing style that allowed them to lead the Championship with high turnovers has not really manifested itself in the Premier League. They have forced the seventh-most turnovers, but are last in PPDA and opponent stack-up completion percentage allowed. To be fair, they have faced two of the best-formed teams in England: Chelsea and Brighton.

Instead they tried to play their low block with five at the back, which was successful against West Ham keeping them to just 1.2 xG and, as you can see in the passing map above, made it very difficult for the Hammers. difficult to play the ball. through the middle of the field.

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The market is as low as it can be for Luton Town at the moment, which I think makes this a perfect buy low opportunity.

Fulham’s underlying metrics have been so bad for so long that they should never put up such a big number against anyone in the Premier League. The Cottagers are not used to being the ones controlling possession and trying to build from the back. In general, they like to play the ball long and very direct, which will favor Luton Town.

I only have Fulham projected at +128, so I love Luton Town’s +1 value at -134.

Choose: Luton Town +1 (-134 via BetRivers)

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