PSG vs Nice odds, picks and predictions | League 1 match preview

PSG vs Nice odds

PSG are looking to make it three wins in a row domestically ahead of their Champions League match on Tuesday against Dortmund.

The French champions have been busy this summer, bringing in a whopping 10 new players and completely rebuilding the squad from what we saw last season. Additions like Ousmane Dembélé and Randal Kolo Muani are good, but even better is reintegrating the best player in the world, Kylian Mbappé, to the squad.

Nice have had an interesting start to the season with three draws against Lille, Lorient and Lyon, but picked up their first win of the season before the international break, dominating Strasbourg at home. They lost both games against PSG last year, even after a resurgent second half of the season, so they will be looking for revenge on Friday.

Things are going to change under Luis Enrique and the transfers they brought are moves towards his dominant possession style. With the Spanish team, Enrique placed a lot of emphasis on controlling the game and controlling a large portion of possession. In four games, PSG are averaging an absurd 72.3% possession and have played two of their four games against top seven teams like Lens and Lyon. PSG already has 128 10+ passing sequences in four games, 49 more than the next team.

It has translated into 9.4 xG in those four games, including a 4-1 rout just before the international break in Lyon, where they created 4.5 xG with 21 shots.

The biggest change with PSG is what they will do without possession. While Messi, Neymar and Mbappé formed a world-class front three, they did very little defensive work. This meant that PSG often defended with seven players and had to sit in low blocks, something they were not very effective at when they had to play against superior teams.

They really weren’t even that effective as a pressing team under Christophe Galtier, posting a PPDA of 11.01, good for ninth in Ligue 1. So far, in four games under Enrique, PSG have a PPDA of 8.8 and has forced 48 turnovers. so the three forwards are clearly more active without possession.

Nice had a resurgence in the second half of last season after they hired Didier Digard as their coach on January 10. In his 21 games in charge, Nice had an npxGD of +16.3, which is the second best mark in France during that time period. He has secured his defense as Nice only allowed 0.96 npxG per 90 minutes. Nice had an incredibly effective low block, ranking second in the final third in penalty area conversion rate allowed, and that’s something new coach Francesco Farioli has continued to take advantage of.

In four games, Nice have conceded just 2.6 xG, which is the best mark in Ligue 1. They have allowed the fewest shots, entries into the box and the second lowest xThreat, only behind PSG.

Farioli was previously manager of Turkish side Analyspor, who were not a good defensive team by any means, but were in the relegation fight for most of the season, so he had to be aggressive to keep them up in the Super Lig. . He played with several different formations last season, but settled for a 4-3-3 in four games with an emphasis on pressing high and not allowing opponents to play from the back. Nice have forced the third most turnovers and already have 10 shots from those turnovers, so they will make life difficult for PSG as they try to build from the back.

The most important thing about Enrique’s teams is that the pace of the game is usually very slow. Given the amount of possession PSG have had and the large number of passes they have attempted, games will typically be low-level.

Nice have been pressing high effectively this season, but it would be a bit reckless to try and put pressure on this PSG team, so I think you’ll see them pick their spots, but most of the time they adapt to a good defensive shape and are incredibly difficult. to break down.

This is a place to look forward to for PSG, and in recent years they have shown that they care much more about the Champions League than Ligue 1.

Taking into account the team’s rotation and the fact that I only project 2.87 goals if PSG plays with its best starting eleven, I like the value of the under 3s.

Choose: Sub 3 (-104 via BetRivers)

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