Tennessee vs Florida Odds, Picks & Predictions | College Football Betting Preview (Saturday, September 16)

Tennessee vs Florida Odds

Florida dates back to 1916 and leads Tennessee, 31-21, in a rivalry called the Third Saturday in September.

The Volunteers haven’t won in Gainesville since 2003, but pulled out a win in Knoxville last year after surviving a fourth-quarter push by Anthony Richardson that resulted in a pin for the Gators.

Florida head coach Billy Napier was pleased with his team’s Week 2 result: a rout of McNeese after a season-opening loss to Utah in Salt Lake City.

Florida entered the season with one of the toughest schedules in the country and a projected win short of the six wins needed for a bowl berth. However, a win over Tennessee could be the decisive victory that puts Florida in the postseason.

Josh Heupel is coaching his third season at Tennessee after winning the 2022 SEC Coach of the Year award.

The Volunteers opened strong with a 36-point victory over Virginia, followed by a slow start against Austin Peay. Tennessee had one of the lowest numbers from an experience perspective to start the season, and now Heupel will look to correct the mistakes his team made in a flat effort against the Governors.

The biggest question of the offseason revolved around the accuracy of Tennessee quarterback Joe Milton III. The sixth-year senior failed to make a single big shot in 33 pass attempts against Austin Peay.

The Volunteers’ targets didn’t help matters, dropping four passes and providing an average target depth of 5.2 yards. Milton has declining numbers in adjusted completions when throwing more than 10 yards, currently at 46% compared to an average of 59% the previous two seasons..

No player with more than three targets has posted a yardage per route mark higher than 1.7, meaning the Vols’ explosiveness from 2022 is absent.

Tennessee ranks 97th in Quality Drives, indicating that Milton has not been able to generate consistency for the offense.

The Vols’ basic performance against Austin Peay included just three passes of 20+ yards and just one methodical drive, which are areas to watch against Florida.

Heupel’s team has better numbers on the defensive side of the ball through two games, ranking 111th in terms of schedule.

Neither Austin Peay nor Virginia created explosives or generated enough success to move the chains. Tennessee’s defense ranks in the top 35 in quality defensive drives and finishing drives, both indicators that the defense is on the rise in coordinator Tim Banks’ third season.

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Florida defeated an FCS school in a bounce-back victory after suffering a season-opening loss at Utah.

Quarterback Graham Mertz played a near-perfect ball against McNeese, going 14-of-17 with a touchdown.

The offensive line continued to be a strong unit and now ranks fifth in line yards and 21st in stuff rating on the season. The Gators posted an astronomical 80% success rate on 51 rushing attempts against the Cowboys, with only four runs stuffed all day.

Montrell Johnson Jr. and Trevor Etienne have been the workhorses in the backfield, each averaging more than six yards per rushing attempt and dominating five targets each.

The defense has been a mixed bag under coordinator Austin Armstrong, failing to generate a pass rush but ranking in the top 10 against the run.

The Gators have greatly improved fundamentals with 19th in tackles and 7th in third-down defense.

More importantly, Utah and McNeese State were unable to generate explosive plays, as Utah recorded just one 20-yard pass and one 20-yard run in the opening play.

Weakside linebacker Shemar James leads the team in tackles and assists while also earning one of the highest coverage grades of any linebacker in the FBS.

Toggle the dropdown menus below to hide or show how Tennessee and Florida match up statistically:

Tennessee Offense vs. Florida Defense

Hasty success	6	9
Yards of line	4	7
Past events	69	39
Havoc	4	67
Finishing units	3. 4	83
Quality units	97	37

Florida Offense vs. Tennessee Defense

Hasty success	4	sixteen
Yards of line	5	51
Past events	53	sixteen
Havoc	44	6
Finishing units	40	24
Quality units	89	33

Pace of play/Other

Approach to PFF	44	19
FFP coverage	13	38
SP+ Special Equipment	68	84
Medium 8	9	89
Seconds per play	19.1 (5)	29.4 (105)
Rush rate	56.0% (35)	51.8% (85)

Tennessee’s Week 2 win over Austin Peay certainly came with question marks. Heupel insisted in his weekly press conference that penalties, red zone play and dropped balls influenced the score.

Tennessee’s offense has been a shell of its previous version, as Milton has completed just two passes beyond 20 yards. In two games, the Volunteers recorded five drops, nine contested goals and only two contested receptions.

Tennessee’s biggest strength on the offensive side of the ball is its running game, led by Jaylen Wright and his 5.44 yards after contact average. The running backs could be complemented by the return of center Cooper Mays.

Both Wright and Jabari Small are explosive options out of the backfield, but the wide formation hasn’t produced big gains through the air. Tennessee enters Week 3 ranked 69th in passing success rate and 118th in explosive passing.

Heupel indicated that Florida’s offensive line is an area of ​​concern. The Gators own a top-25 schedule thanks to the Utah game, so their top-10 rankings in line yards and rushing success rate are legitimate.

There may be reason to believe Mertz could have success throwing the ball, as Florida ranks 33rd in catchable balls rate.

Action Network projects this game in a field goal in favor of Tennessee.

The Volunteers have yet to display the width and deep passing attack that propelled the team to national relevance last season. If the penalties, drops and inefficiencies shown against Austin Peay continue, the Gators will make it 10th straight in Gainesville.

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