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Alexa Grasso vs. Valentina Shevchenko Odds

Grasso odds
Shevchenko Odds
4.5 (-154 / +120)
T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas
11:59 pm Eastern Time
Odds starting Friday night and via FanDuel

On Saturday, the UFC returns to T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas for UFC Night, headlined by a women’s flyweight title fight between current champion Alexa Grasso and former champion Valentina Shevchenko.

Grasso captured flyweight gold at UFC 285, submitting Shevchenko via rear-naked choke in the fourth round of their title fight, collecting a +2600 winning method prop.

In that first fight, Grasso’s moneyline closed as high as +750 (11.8% implied) before the opening bell and returned to that number in live markets after trailing 29-28 on all cards. after three rounds.

Shevchenko enters her 11th title fight in her last 12 fights on Saturday and hopes to avenge the only loss of her career at flyweight after stalking the 125-pound division since 2018.

Grasso entered his third consecutive five-round fight and appeared to have the cardiovascular advantage in the first fight. He will hope to prove that his March upset was no fluke as the headliner of this UFC card created to showcase Mexican fighters.

Below, I’ll provide my analysis and projections for Saturday’s UFC Night main event rematch between Alexa Grasso and Valentina Shevchenko (10 p.m. ET main card, ESPN+) and use those factors to bet on these flyweights, who should make his cage walks at approximately 11:55 pm eastern time.

tale of the tape

Grasso Shevchenko
Record 16-3 23-4
Average fight time 14:12 17:29
Height 5’5″ 5’5″
Weight 124.5 pounds 124.5 pounds
Reach (inches) 66″ 66″
Position Orthodox Left handed
Birthdate 8/9/1993 3/7/1988
Sig strikes per minute 4.88 3.29
SS Precision 43% 53%
SS absorbed per minute 4.07 1.99
SS Defense 59% 63%
Lower the average 0.38 2.57
TD account 44% 64%
TD Defense 61% 72%
Shipping Average 0.6 0.3

Shevchenko closed around a consensus favorite of -670 (87% implied) in her split decision win over Talia Santos at UFC 275 and -900 (90% implied) in her loss to Grasso. She never came close to covering her price in any of the fights.

At 35 years old (five years older than the average flyweight), the former champion and two-division title challenger may be slowing down and showing signs of physical regression, which first appeared when she surprisingly lost a clean round to Jennifer Maia at UFC 255 in November. 2020 (as a -2500 favorite).

The surprising exchanges in Grasso-Shevchenko I were highly competitive, if not outright won, by Grasso, who showed faster, more powerful hands and landed cleaner combinations in long exchanges.

Grasso had a lot of success breaking the pocket, getting into Shevchenko’s kicking range and taking a hit to land two.

Grasso’s constant change of stance proved problematic for the southpaw Shevchenko, who landed her body kick with Grasso standing orthodox, but struggled to find answers against a mirrored stance.

Shevchenko had her best minutes in this fight after landing reactive takedowns and consolidating first position (completing four of six attempts, 5:24 control time). Grasso has shown poor takedown defense (61%) throughout her career, but has worked to improve her defensive jiu-jitsu and pick-up game to keep her safe on the ground and give her the ability to return to range. Of attack.

Shevchenko didn’t do much damage with his offensive control time nor did he show that he can maintain a heavy game plan for long periods; He began breathing heavily after Grasso recovered in the second round, and his shots became much more telegraphed (and less effective) after that point. The cardiovascular advantage could prove crucial for the younger champion.

Additionally, Shevchenko needed Grasso to overcommit to attacks to land those reactive takedowns and get on top of her. When Shevchenko attempted to initiate the clinch, attempting a judo throw at the end of the first round, Grasso ended up on his back as the round expired.

Grasso got to Shevchenko’s back at the five-minute mark as quickly as he did in the final sequence of the fourth round, after Shevchenko missed a spinning attack. And if that exchange had happened earlier in the round, perhaps Grasso would have scored a submission in the first round.

Shevchenko has shown vulnerability to counterattacks against her last two opponents, and I expect Grasso to find ways to regain that dominant position. Shevchenko must avoid using those judo throws and spinning techniques, while Grasso will focus on boxing so Shevehnko can’t turn a caught kick into a takedown attempt.

Both flyweights have a notable hole in one area of ​​their defensive fight, but unless a fighter exploits that particular weakness, this matchup is relatively close and competitive in all others.

To justify his favoritism, Shevchenko needs to fight and proactively accumulate control time; Otherwise, the margins and optics in any stroke-based round should be close to a coin toss with Grasso currying favor with a partisan crowd.

Grasso vs. Shevchenko selection

I project Valentina Shevchenko as a 62.6% favorite (-167 implied odds) in this matchup, and I see no value on either side of the moneyline.

I expect the fight to go to a decision 60% of the time (-150 implied odds) and I would. bet the fight to make a decision (-125 on BetRivers) or the “over 4.5 rounds”.

In the first matchup, I bet 3.5 rounds at +100; the fight was -160 to finish inside the distance (61.5%) compared to +110 (47.6% implied) for the rematch. My projection for that support has gone from 51% to 40% since the first fight.

While both fighters landed clean blows to the head in the first matchup, the pace was a moderate to low-paced kickboxing fight. And on average, UFC women’s flyweight fights go to a decision more than 60% of the time.

A submission (for either fighter) or an attrition-based stoppage for Grasso – against a tired Shevchenko – seems the most likely possibility to finish rather than a permanent knockout or a crucifix positional TKO, which was the assumption before the first fight.

I also see slight actionable value regarding Grasso’s decision (projected +346, listed +370 on FanDuel), which I would consider playing small or including it as the final leg of a round-robin.

The election: The fight goes to decision (-125, 0.5u on BetRivers) | Alexa Grasso wins by decision (+370, 0.1u on FanDuel)

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