UFC Night odds, picks and predictions for Kevin Holland vs. Jack Della Maddalena: 2 Saturday Night Bets (September 16)

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Kevin Holland vs. Jack Della Maddalena Odds

Netherlands Odds
Della Maddalena Odds
2.5 (+112 / -142)
T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas
11:30 pm Eastern Time
Odds starting Thursday and via FanDuel

The Las Vegas co-feature features a fun showdown between ranked welterweights Kevin Holland and Jack Della Maddalena.

Since losing back-to-back fights to Khamzat Chimaev and Stephen Thompson, Holland appears to be back on track as he has racked up a pair of knockout wins at 170 pounds.

Della Maddalena, a product of Dana White’s Contender Series, has reeled off five straight victories since officially debuting with the UFC.

tale of the tape

Holland Of the Magdalene
Record 25-9 15-2
Average fight time 10:52 6:51
Height 6’3″ 5’11”
Weight pounds) 170 pounds. 170 pounds.
Reach (inches) 81″ 73″
Position Orthodox Change
Birthdate 11/5/1992 09/10/1996
Sig blows per minute 4.11 7.27
SS Precision 52% 52%
SS absorbed per minute 2.96 3.50
SS Defense 52% 69%
Lower the average 0.83 0.36
TD account 41% twenty%
TD Defense 53% 81%
Shipping Average 0.6 0.4

Both fighters are more well-rounded than they are usually given credit for, but this battle will likely be a delight for the strikers.

Holland, who is incredibly long for the division with a reach of 81 inches, smartly appears to lean a bit more on his lead hand at welterweight.

Whether Holland pushes and pushes with his jab or switches up with his hook, the 30-year-old American handles the distance quite well. That approach also helps establish Holland’s patented right hand, which is an opportunistic weapon that the Texan always keeps tight.

That said, Holland’s boxing-focused stance has traditionally left him open to kicks.

Della Maddalena may be best known as a boxing threat, but the Australian seems to keep some underrated kicks in his back pocket.

In his fight against Randy Brown, Della Maddalena showed the means to intelligently punish Brown for stepping heavily on his lead leg. However, it is within the pocket where Maddalena traditionally earns her money.

A competent combination puncher in both stances, Della Maddalena performs well whenever he can corral his opposition between the cage and the lines of the inner black octagon. And once he can sit within range, the Australia native has no qualms about throwing check hooks and liver shots.

Both men are also useful submission threats, but poor and/or risky decision making has been an issue that could arise with either wrestler.

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Holland team vs. Della Maddalena

Although bettors place the American as a favorite, the public money has fallen on the Australian.

While I understand the logic of slightly favoring the most tested product, I also think there was a bit of recency bias in the first line.

Della Maddalena showed a suspect fight IQ in his most recent outing, but the fact that he found himself in a competitive fight with Bassil Hafez should not have surprised anyone who was paying attention and researching the two fighters.

This market reaction doesn’t surprise me, but I’m angry that I missed out on Della Maddalena as the underdog.

However, I ended up taking Della Maddalena to win “within distance”, which is in the neighborhood of +150.

Aside from the fact that it’s priced similarly to the knockout prop, it also covers an opportunistic submission in case Della Maddalena tries her luck with an injured Holland.

Holland may be difficult to knock out, but his propensity to play inside the fence and the inner lines of the black octagon will likely get him into trouble given that is Della Maddalena’s preferred kill zone. That being said, Della Maddalena’s defense is far from impervious, so I’ll also be playing under as a sort of cover.

I don’t blame anyone for keeping it simple and choosing a side, but I’m making a calculated attempt at violence.

The chose:
Della Maddalena “Within the Distance” +150 (via DraftKings) | Under 2.5 rounds -142 (via FanDuel)

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