Welcome to the latest edition of MMA Prop Squad, where we offer a variety of UFC Night prop bets with huge odds for Saturday’s ESPN+ event.
Each installment of Prop Squad features a handful of picks from our team of prop betting enthusiasts, who have totaled +7.4 units and +3.0% ROI per bet to date.
UFC Night (“UFC Night”) celebrates Mexican Independence Day with UFC women’s flyweight champion and Mexico’s own Alexa Grasso rematching former longtime champion Valentina Shevchenko in the main event.
UFC Night takes place tonight at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, with all programming streaming on ESPN+ starting at 7 pm ET (4 pm PT) with the main card beginning at 10 pm ET. With 11 fights in total, UFC Night offers no shortage of betting opportunities.
This week marks the return of team members Tony Sartori, Billy Ward, Dann Stupp and Dan Tom.
Check out their picks for UFC Night below.
As with all bets, always bet within your means. That guidance is especially important when it comes to prop bets. Although props often offer tempting odds, they also cash out much less frequently than standard bet types. And be sure to shop around to find the best price, as prop odds can vary substantially by bookmaker.
Tony Sartori: Jasmine Jasudavicius by submission (+1400)
Contributor at The Action Network
Fighters Strikes: Approx. 7:55 pm Eastern Time
We have a matchup between two ranked flyweights in the prelims of UFC Night with #15 contender Jasmine Jasudavicius taking on #14 Tracy Cortez.
After losing to Natalia Silva in 2022, Jasudavicius entered this year with a mission and has not disappointed. This will already be her third fight of 2023 after defeating Gabriella Fernandes and Miranda Maverick as betting losers.
The market is starting to respect Jasudavicius more with his +105 price in this fight, although I still don’t think he has adjusted enough. Not only are Fernandes and Maverick very capable fighters, but Jasudavicius absolutely dominated them both with his strong wrestling.
Considering Cortez isn’t afraid to mix things up on the mat either, there’s no doubt that most of this fight will be wrestling. Assuming that’s true, I expect the bigger and much more active Jasudavicius to maintain the advantage and take the win.
While he’s more likely to hold on for a decision win, the 14/1 odds are too long to pass up his submission support. As I just said, the majority of this fight will likely take place on the mat, and those odds are more likely to involve a submission being locked in at some point during the wrestling exchanges.
Additionally, Cortez’s only professional loss came via submission in the Invicta FC promotion. While I think Jasudavicius will once again rely on his fight to rack up points and earn a decision win, a +1400 submission on DraftKings is a tremendous price to take a flight in a fight that will likely take place primarily on the canvas. .
The Pick: Jasmine Jasudavicius by Submission (+1400 on DraftKings)
Billy Ward: Daniel Lacerda in Round 1 (+470)
Editor of The Action Network
Fighters Strikes: Approx. 8:25 pm Eastern Time
Daniel Lacerda is 0-4 in the UFC. At first glance (and second and third), that’s not a big deal. He has been finished four times in a row and has never even seen a third round.
But if you squint a little, you can see the positive side.
Lacerda has to have something going for him as a fifth chance to win for the first time in the UFC is unprecedented. We expect prospects to get two or three chances in the UFC before being cut, even in a relatively thin division like flyweight.
However, he gets another chance thanks to his ball-to-the-wall fighting style. Lacerda has scored knockdowns in the first frame of each of his last two fights, nearly finishing Victor Altamirano in the first minute.
In fact, he sat CJ Vergara down twice before emptying his gas tank and getting hit the second time.
Lacerda is a dynamic striker who delivers head kicks, spinning attacks and wild punches with reckless abandon.
He’s losing a bit of opponent quality against Edgar Cahirez, who is 0-1 after losing to super prospect Tatsuro Taira in his debut. While there’s no shame in it, Chairez also dropped out of his Contender Series fight against Clayton Carpenter, and is 0-2 in other fights against future UFC competition.
It’s hard to say Lacerda is at the UFC level, but Chairez might not be either. With Lacerda’s aggressive style (and his shallow gas tank), his most likely path to victory is early. I’ll take those +470 odds on FanDuel.
Pick: Daniel Lacerda in Round 1 (+470)
Dann Stupp: Kevin Holland in Round 2 (+1000)
Senior Editor at The Action Network
Fighters Strikes: Approx. 11:25 pm Eastern Time
I jumped into the UFC Night co-main event of Kevin Holland vs. Jack Della Maddalena knowing that he was playing with fire. Not only should it create some significant movement in the welterweight division, where both fighters are ranked in the top 15 but are still trying to crack the top 10, but the fight should also produce some violence.
I bet Holland straight to the money line as a slight underdog (+128) tonight, but I keep coming back to the same vision (and reward) of how it ends: Holland in Round 2 with a payout of 10-1.
So I’m adding a Prop Squad play in the UFC Night co-feature in addition to my ML play.
Della Maddalena is a fun fighter and brings a dynamic touch to his matches. But since he joined the UFC, the Australian has also proven to be quite hittable at times. Many respected MMA bettors have been looking for an opportunity to dispel the somewhat hyped prospect.
And I think UFC Night can be an opportunity for us.
Of course, this won’t be a walk in the park for Holland, and Della Maddalena is still a legitimate prospect regardless of how this fight plays out. But after four winning performances against mid-level UFC competition, JDM is getting a legitimate and crafty opponent with plenty of experience on big stages in Holland.
I think Holland uses the first round to test its reach and see what Della Maddalena has to offer. And as long as Holland keeps his back off the cage and can avoid some of those stinging body shots, I think his veteran ability allows him to take control after the first frame to achieve the knockout or tap-out.
Pick: Kevin Holland in Round 2 (+1000)
Dan Tom: Alexa Grasso by Decision (+370)
Contributor to The Action Network and host of the Protect Ya’ Neck podcast
Fighters Strikes: Approx. 11:55 pm Eastern Time
For this week’s Prop Squad feature, I decided to focus on the main event of UFC Night between women’s flyweight champion Alexa Grasso and former champion Valentina Shevchenko.
Shevchenko, who I picked to win in their first meeting earlier this year, remains the favorite despite losing to Grasso in his last outing.
While I don’t expect Shevchenko to repeat the mistake that caused her to be submitted again at UFC 285, I do suspect we’ll have a closer fight this time around.
Shevchenko is officially 1-1 in rematches in her career, with the common denominator being that she typically fights more conservatively the second time around.
That is why I believe that Grasso’s activity should serve him well if this fight continues as many predict.
I’m already at the “over 4.5 rounds” total, but I’ll also be happy to count on Grasso to win by decision in a fight that will likely see the scorecards.
Pick: Alexa Grasso by Decision (+370)
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