Vikings vs. Eagles Odds
Thursday September 14
8:15 pm Eastern Time
-110o / -110u
-110o / -110u
Week 2 of the 2023 NFL season begins with a Vikings vs. Eagles for Thursday night
Minnesota enters this matchup after a rather unfortunate loss to the Buccaneers in Week 1, while Philadelphia was very lucky to escape with a win over the Patriots on Tom Brady Day.
Let’s look at the odds for Vikings vs. Eagles and let’s make a betting pick for Thursday night NFL.
Vikings vs eagles
Analysis of confrontations
The Vikings were fortunate to have one of the luckiest seasons in 2022, when they went 11-0 in one-score games.
In general, we expect most NFL teams to have around a .500 winning percentage in one-score games. So, you could say the Vikings got almost 5.5 one-score lucky wins, a big reason why they went 13-4 and made the playoffs. They also had the fourth-best luck with injuries a season ago.
The regression has already hit the Vikings hard. Minnesota lost by three points to the Baker Mayfield-led Buccaneers despite outscoring them by 159 yards in total offense. The Vikings had a -3 turnover differential, with two of those occurring inside the Bucs’ 30-yard line. The other turnover set up a short field for the Bucs, who failed to gain a single yard on that drive, but managed to score three points.
It was the Vikings’ first one-score loss since 2021, and they probably should have won.
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The Eagles had much better luck in Week 1, when they were the luckiest team, according to our luck rankings. Their defense recorded a Pick-6 on the opening drive and then recovered a fumble on the first play of the Patriots’ second drive.
New England came back late and nearly pulled off a comeback, but Philadelphia held on despite being outgained by 152 total yards. The Eagles are clearly one of the best teams in the league, but the market is likely to overreact to the Week 1 win and the Vikings’ loss.
In fact, this matchup ranks as the best luck ranking matchup of Week 2, with a luck gap of 27 and a luck gap of 133.5%. Since 2018, in any game with a 24+ luck gap or a 50%+ luck gap, the unlucky team (in this case, Minnesota) has gone 96-54-4 (64%) ATS.
Bet Minnesota vs. Philadelphia on FanDuel
There are a handful of key injuries to highlight for this game.
Eagles injury report (as of Wednesday night):
- RB Kenneth Gainwell (out; ribs)
- DT Fletcher Cox (questionable; ribs)
- LB Nakobe Dean (out; foot)
- CB James Bradberry (out; concussion)
- S Reed Blankenship (out; ribs)
Gainwell missing the game shouldn’t make a difference. His touches will simply go to D’Andre Swift and Rashaad Penny, who are arguably superior running backs.
Losses on the defensive end, however, will have a huge impact. Dean is a big loss as the middle linebacker plays a huge role in the Eagles’ defensive scheme – they will have to turn to undrafted free agent Christian Elliss. Losing two key players in the secondary, Bradberry and Blankenship, is also a big blow, especially considering they’re facing a Vikings offense with plenty of elite passing and receiving options.
Vikings injury report:
- DE Marcus Davenport (questionable; ankle)
- LT Christian Darrisaw (questionable; ankle)
- C Garrett Bradbury (Out; Back)
The Vikings hope Davenport can make his debut Thursday night. He would give his pass rush a much-needed boost after generating just a 23% pressure rate on Baker Mayfield in Week 1, despite attacking at the highest rate (52%).
Facing an elite pass rush, the potential losses of both Bradbury and Darrisaw would be detrimental. I’m not too worried about Bradbury’s absence since he gave up the third-most sacks (29) by a snapper last season. Austin Schlottmann, who will replace him, played well in relief after Bradbury went down.
Vikings vs eagles
Betting Picks and Predictions
Darrisaw is one of the best left tackles in the game and if he were to be ruled out, it would be Oli Udoh who would replace him. That would only lower my Vikings power rating by about 0.5 points, but considering they no longer have Bradbury, I’d say it would be a full one-point drop in power rating. The Eagles’ injury report, specifically on the defensive end, would also be worth a one-point drop in the team’s rating.
So, if Darrisaw ends up suiting up, Minnesota would have about a 0.5-point lead on the injury report, while also being the top play in our Week 2 luck rankings.
Vikings +6.5 is the bet here, but I’m willing to wait and see if Darrisaw fits well. either if the line goes back to +7.
Choose: Vikings +6.5 (if Darrisaw is active)
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