Washington vs. Michigan State Odds and Predictions: Will Defenses Show Up?

Washington vs Michigan State odds

In a game full of starters off the field, No. 8 Washington goes on the road to play Michigan State in a battle of unbeatens.

The Huskies’ high-flying offense has been on full display this season and is averaging 49.5 points per game.

Meanwhile, attention will focus on changes to the Spartans’ coaching staff after Mel Tucker was suspended earlier this week.

Even with all the news surrounding this game, I have a sneaking suspicion that this contest may be more competitive than most expect.

The best value is in the total, so let’s do a Washington vs. Washington over/under betting pick. Michigan State.

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Coming into the season, there were high expectations for the return of quarterback Michael Penix Jr., and he has not disappointed.

Through two games, Penix ranks fourth in multiple passing categories, including yards (859), touchdowns (8) and QBR (91.7).

Of course, it helps that their top five receivers from a season ago are back, including a pair of 1,000-yard pass catchers in Rome Odunze and Jalen McMillan.

Coach Kalen DeBoer has built one of the best offenses in the country and the advanced metrics back up that claim.

The Huskies rank inside the top 20 in both passing (3rd) and rushing success rate (17th), as well as finishing drives (13th). However, this should be his toughest test yet.

A familiar name will return to the Michigan State bench, as former coach Mark Dantonio was named associate head coach.

Dantonio returns to assist interim head coach Harlon Barnett, who has been a member of the defensive coaching staff for 15 years.

On the field, the Spartans have handled their business, dominating both Central Michigan and Richmond.

A key to success has been the play of quarterback Noah Kim. The redshirt junior was named Big Ten Offensive Player of the Week after passing for a career-high 292 yards and three touchdowns against the Spiders.

Kim leads the conference in passing (285.5 ypg) and is tied for first in touchdown passes (five). He also ranks second in the Big Ten in passing efficiency (189.6 rating) and total offense (296 ypg).

Toggle the dropdown menus below to hide or show how Washington and Michigan State match up statistically:

Washington Offense vs. Michigan State Defense

Hasty success	17	fifty
Yards of line	42	23
Past events	3	12
Havoc	64	4
Finishing units	13	13
Quality units	10	4

Michigan State offense versus Washington defense

Hasty success	83	96
Yards of line	104	130
Past events	22	27
Havoc	84	99
Finishing units	38	25
Quality units	78	52

Pace of play/Other

Approach to PFF	92	53
FFP coverage	22	44
SP+ Special Equipment	89	7
Medium 8	54	44
Seconds per play	29.1 (99)	26.8 (65)
Rush rate	33.3% (131)	55.2% (47)

This is a tough handicap game because of all the unknowns surrounding Michigan State. Beyond the coaching staff changes, the Spartans have yet to face an opponent as good as Washington.

Despite the soft schedule, I’m impressed with their performance so far.

This will also be the toughest test Washington’s offense has faced this season, and while it won’t be my favorite bet of the week, I like the under-55 total, which is the most popular key number for college football, according to Collin. Wilson’s research, or better.

Yes, I spent most of the lead-up talking about great quarterback play on both sides, but I think the weak competition has boosted the numbers.

For starters, the Huskies were able to take advantage of the depleted secondaries of Boise State and Tulsa.

Meanwhile, the Spartans have faced opponents from the Mid-American Conference and the FCS level.

Additionally, neither of these teams play at a very fast pace; Michigan State ranks 65th in seconds per play, but Washington ranks 99th.

If there’s one thing we know, it’s that Dantonio will want to play at a slower pace to keep the Huskies’ powerful offense off the field.

Once you add the new clock rules, I think this total is too high.

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